Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Today’s only scheduled events that have the potential to affect mortgage rates come during afternoon hours. We will get the results of today’s 5-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 PM ET. If the sale drew a strong demand from investors, we could see bonds improve this afternoon and mortgage rates revise slightly lower. On the other hand, a weak interest in the securities may contribute to an upward revision in rates. Since these are much shorter-term securities than last week’s 20-year Bonds, it is highly unlikely that we will get a similar reaction as we did last week when bonds tanked due to a poor demand. Still, a strong sale today will be considered good news for mortgage rates. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 7-year Notes are sold.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The minutes from this month’s FOMC meeting will be posted at 2:00 PM ET today. They will likely be a non-event for rates, but they always carry the possibility of giving a surprise that the markets will react to. Of interest to bond traders is information on how individual members feel about the direction of inflation, employment, tariffs and economic growth. The goal is to form an opinion about potential future monetary policy moves, such as when key rates may be lowered again. If there is a reaction to the minutes, it will come during midafternoon trading today.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow also brings us two moderately important pieces of economic data, both at 8:30 AM ET. Last week’s unemployment update is expected to show 230,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made. This would be an increase from the previous week’s 227,000 initial filings. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector. Therefore, the larger the number, the better the news for mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

GDP Rev 1 (month after initial)

The first revision to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading is the morning’s other relevant release. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth or contraction. Last month's preliminary reading revealed that the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.3%. Analysts expect to see little change from that first reading, meaning the economy contracted slightly during the first three months of the year. If the revision comes in stronger than the last estimate, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher because it would mean the economy was doing better than thought. Since bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, a larger decline would be good news for mortgage rates.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

GDP Rev 1 (month after initial)

Float / Lock Recommendation